“Overall growth in the European generic markets is expected to be steady rather than spectacular”, Ms Cloud said. “We have revised down our forecasts in recent months to reflect the current situation in Germany and recent exchange rate movements between the euro and the emerging market currencies.”

Ms Cloud’s forecast for generics growth in the US was even more worrying. She expected that this year the US market will be worth US$29.6 billion (Euros 21.1 billion), rising to US$35.7 billion (Euros 25.2 billion) in 2012 and remaining at the level for two years and then decline in 2015 and thereafter. “The US market, which relies mostly on patent expiries, is unlikely to grow significantly after 2012. Overall, we’re expecting anaemic growth in North America.” said Ms Cloud.

According to Ms Cloud, emerging markets, which already dominate global generics, are likely to continue to drive growth. Nomura estimated that in 2008 Russia accounted for a third of all generic profits in Europe, which is by far the single biggest market in Europe, while Germany is second in place, Poland third, Turkey fourth, France fifth and the Ukraine sixth.

Ms Cloud warned that the fact that generics companies are dependant on emerging markets is worrying, because these countries depend on consumer spending to drive growth. “The Russian economy is suffering badly from the global economic downturn and disposable income has declined sharply, while the plunging exchange rate is making imports more expensive.”